THE COVID OSCARS (OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2021)
It is going to be an Oscars ceremony like never before.
Last year's Oscars took place before the Coronavirus shut down many countries.
This year as the world still grapples with Covid-19, the Academy Awards has had to radically rethink how it is going to hand out its statuettes just like every other major awards ceremony has done over the last year.
Instead of taking place in February, the event has switched to late April.
This year's ceremony will flit between Los Angeles' Dolby Theatre and Union Station because of social distancing.
Nominees will also be able to join via satellite from London and Paris.
All of this has made for a rather different type of awards season.
This year's runners and ridership have had to find audiences mostly through streaming services instead of cinemas which have been shut because of the pandemic.
Some of the contenders have yet to made available in some territories.
But how does Pomona rate the favourites' chances?
As is traditional, Pomona foolishly predicts a winner in each category and assesses the major races.
Given that major contenders like Chloe Zhao's highly fancied 'Nomadland,' Thomas Vinterberg's 'Another Round' and Florian Zeller's 'The Father' have yet to be released in the UK and Ireland, we are ditching our traditional "what should win" feature.
That seems sensible but let's enjoy our annual parlour game.
BEST PICTURE
With Golden Globe, BAFTA, Producers Guild and Critics Choice awards under its belt, this category feels like a slam dunk for Chloe Zhao's 'Nomadland'.
Aaron Sorkin's 'The Trial of the Chicago Seven' triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild but it must be remembered 'Nomadland' was deemed ineligible in that competition for the ensemble cast award because of the film's focus around Frances McDormand's character.
Those looking for a major shock should take their pick from Sorkin's theatrical film, David Fincher's overrated 'Mank,' Florian Zeller's well regarded 'The Father,' Lee Isaac Chung's touching 'Minari' and Emerald Fennell's powerful 'Promising Young Woman'.
However the chances of an upset seem extremely remote.
This statuette has 'Nomadland' written all over it.
Nominees: The Father; Judas and the Black Messiah; Mank; Minari; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago Seven
What Will Win: Nomadland
Vinterberg has done very well to make this shortlist, while Fincher always seemed destined to make it.
Chung and Fennell are strong contenders too.
However it looks likely that for the second year running, the Best Director winner will actually be the same as Best Picture.
Expect Chloe Zhao to become only the second woman to win in this category, following in the footsteps of Kathryn Bigelow.
Nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round); David Fincher (Mank); Lee Isaac Chung (Minari); Chloe Zhao (Nomadland); Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
What Will Win: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Of all the high profile categories, this is the most open race.
Andra Day upset the form book with her Golden Globe Best Actress in a Drama win for 'The United States versus Billie Holiday'.
Early favourite Viola Davis took the top award at the Screen Actors Guild for 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'.
Carey Mulligan upset the odds at the Critics Choice Awards for her terrific performance in 'Promising Young Woman'.
Frances McDormand won the BAFTA for 'Nomadland'.
So given that they're spreading the love over awards season, Oscar night should belong to Vanessa Kirby for 'Pieces of a Woman', right?
Probably not - although it's arguably the bravest performance of the five.
Momentum for 'Nomadland' may carry McDormand to a third statuette but I have a sneaking suspicion Day will cause the upset despite it being the most conventional of the five.
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom): Andra Day (The United States versus Billie Holiday); Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman): Frances McDormand (Nomadland); Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
What Will Win: Andra Day (The People versus Billie Holiday)
In any other year, Riz Ahmed's heartfelt performance as a drummer who is losing his hearing in 'The Sound of Metal' would be regarded as a very strong contender.
So too would Anthony Hopkins for his turn as a dementia patient in 'The Father'.
However it is hard to conceive of any other result than a posthumous win for the late Chadwick Boseman in 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'.
Despite Hopkins winning a BAFTA, Boseman has scooped just about every other prize and it is deserved.
Oldman for 'Mank' and Yuen for 'Minari' also appear to be making up the numbers in a category that will celebrate a charismatic lead actor whose death last year robbed cinema of a promising talent.
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal); Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom); Anthony Hopkins (The Father); Gary Oldman (Mank); Steve Yeun (Minari).
What Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
History beckons in a category that is not as nailed down as some might have anticipated.
For Yuh-jung Youn, she could become the first Korean to take home an acting Oscar and she has become a very strong contender after her BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild victories.
For Glenn Close, a different kind of history beckons.
Should she lose for an eighth time in an Oscar race for her performance in 'Hillbilly Elegy,' she will tie with Peter O'Toole as the most unsuccessful acting nominee of all time.
One measure of just how competitive this category is is the fact that Jodie Foster's Golden Globes Supporting Actress win for 'The Mauritanian' wasn't even enough to carry her into the Oscars shortlist.
A victory for Seyfried for 'Mank' is possible and Colman should not be discounted for 'The Father,' nor should Close if sentiment carries the evening.
Maria Bakalova might even provide a Marisa Tomei 'My Cousin Vinny' style upset for 'Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm'.
However I am plumping for a Yuh-jung Youn win for her mischievous performance in 'Minari', as Academy voters will surely like to give Lee Isaac Chung's film a major award?
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm); Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy); Olivia Colman (The Father); Amanda Seyfried (Mank); Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
What Will Win: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
On the basis of the awards season form book, Kaluuya should be the runaway favourite for his magnetic Golden Globe, BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild winning performance as Fred Hampton in 'Judas and the Black Messiah'.
However the nomination of his co-star Lakeith Stanfield in this category for his terrific turn as the FBI informant William O'Neal has raised the possibility of a split vote denying the English actor the biggest prize.
If that happens, either Sacha Baron Cohen or Leslie Odom Jr might be the ones to benefit for their more vanilla turns in 'The Trial of the Chicago Seven' or 'One Night in Miami'.
That would be a pity as Kaluuya, Stanfield and Paul Raci give much more profound performances in 'Judas and the Black Messiah' and 'Sound of Metal'.
Of the five performances, Kaluuya's probably deserves it most and that's why I'm sticking with him to win.
But I am doing so with less conviction than I might have had, had Stanfield not been nominated in this category.
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen ('The Trial of the Chicago Seven'); Daniel Kaluuya ('Judas and the Black Messiah'); Leslie Odom Jr ('One Night in Miami'); Paul Raci ('Sound of Metal'): Lakeith Stanfield ('Judas and the Black Messiah')
What Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Nominees: Another Round (Denmark); Better Days (Hong Kong); Collective (Romania); The Man Who Sold His Skin (Bulgaria); Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia Herzegovina)
What Will Win: Another Round
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: Onward; Over the Moon; A Shaun the Sheep Movie Farmageddon; Soul; Wolfwalkers.
What Will Win: Soul
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Collective; Crip Camp; The Mole Agent; My Octopus Teacher; Time
What Will Win: Crip Camp
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Sean Bobbitt (Judas and the Black Messiah); Erik Messerschmitt (Mank); Dariusz Wolski (News of the World); Joshua James Richards (Nomadland); Phedon Papamichael (The Trial of the Chicago Seven)
What Will Win: Nomadland
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah; Minari; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago Seven
What Will Win: Promising Young Woman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; The Father; Nomadland; One Night in Miami; The White Tiger
What Will Win: Nomadland
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: The Father; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago Seven
What Will Win: The Father
BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE
Nominees: Terence Blanchard (Da 5 Bloods); Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Mank); Emile Mosseri (Minari); James Newton Howard (News of the World); Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste (Soul)
What Will Win: Soul
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah); Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago Seven); Húsavík (Eurovision Song Contest); Io Si - Seen (The Life Ahead); Speak Now (One Night in Miami)
What Will Win: Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago Seven)
BEST SOUND
Nominees: Greyhound; Mank; News of the World; Soul; Sound of Metal
What Will Win: Sound of Metal
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: The Father; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; Tenet
What Will Win: Mank
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: Love and Monsters; The Midnight Sky; Mulan; The One and Only Ivan; Tenet
What Will Win: Tenet
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Emma; Mank; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mulan; Pinnochio
What Will Win: Emma
BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Emma; Hillbilly Elegy; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; Pinocchio
What Will Win: Emma
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Nominees: Feeling Through; The Letter Room; The Present; Two Distant Strangers; White Eye
What Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Nominees: Burrow; Genius Loci; If Anything Happens I Love You; Opera; Yes-People
What Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees: Colette; A Concerto Is A Conversation; Do Not Split; Hunger Ward; A Love Song for Latasha
What Will Win: Colette
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