DOG WHISTLE (OSCAR NOMINATIONS 2022)

 

And breathe...

Breathe safe in the knowledge that after his shock Screen Actors Guild nomination and nod at the Razzies, Jared Leto will not be a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominee this year for his ridiculous performance in 'House of Gucci'.

Unless, of course, you are a major Leto fan in which case you can now sob into your plate of spaghetti while shouting: "They makea bigga mistake-a!"

After an unpredictable awards season so far, this year's Oscars race is now well and truly underway with a lot of love being showered upon Jane Campion's gorgeous Netflix Western tale 'The Power of the Dog'.

There was lots of recognition too for Ryusuke Hagamuchi's three hour Japanese film 'Drive My Car' which fared well outside the Best International Picture category.

Campion's movie, however, picked up the most Academy Award nominations with 12, making it a clear favourite for the top awards.

And while Denis Villeneuve's 'Dune' amassed the second highest tally with 10, the biggest threat to 'The Power of the Dog's' supremacy could well be Kenneth Branagh's early awards season favourite 'Belfast' which along with Steven Spielberg's 'West Side Story' got seven nods each.

There were, of course, some big surprises along the way as this year's nominations were unveiled by Leslie Jordan and Tracee Ellis Ross.

So let's go through the major categories.

BEST PICTURE

As predicted, this looks to be a battle between the hugely admired 'Power of the Dog' and Toronto Film Festival audience favourite 'Belfast'.

So can Campion finally make history and give Netflix the Best Picture Oscar victory it has long coveted?

With nominations in acting, writing and technical categories, it has to be the firm favourite.

But you never know. There's a lot of affection for Branagh and his film which could build as we approach the ceremony on March 27.

It is probably asking too much to expect Hagamuchi's 'Drive My Car' to pull off a 'Parasite' style shock but it has done well to break into this category.

The underwhelming box office performance of Steven Spielberg's 'West Side Story' may have undermined its potential to take the top prize but at least it got a Best Picture nod.

Sian Heder's Apple movie 'CODA,' Villeneuve's 'Dune,' Paul Thomas Anderson's 'Licorice Pizza,' Guillermo del Toro's 'Nightmare Alley,' Reinaldo Marcus Green's 'King Richard' and Adam McKay's 'Don't Look Up' have also done well to make the final list but to be brutally honest, they are the also rans.

Maggie Gyllenhaal's 'The Lost Daughter' can with good reason feel disappointed to be edged out by McKay's satire which of the 10 nominated films is the flimsiest.

BEST DIRECTOR 

Jane Campion must be strongly fancied to take home the directing statuette for her beautifully made Western drama 'The Power of the Dog'.

However Kenneth Branagh can take some pride in making the shortlist for only the second time in his career - 33 years after being nominated for directing 'Henry V'.

Ryusuke Hagamuchi has also done well to land a nomination and would be the darkest of dark horses to win this contest.

Steven Spielberg has been rewarded with an eighth nomination of his career in this category - having previously bagged Best Director Oscars for 'Schindler's List' in 1994 and 'Saving Private Ryan' in 1999.

Paul Thomas Anderson has picked up a third Academy Award Best Director nomination but is unlikely to make it third time lucky.

Denis Villeneuve and Guillermo del Toro may be feeling a tinge of disappointment, while Maggie Gyllenhaal and Rebecca Hall may also feel aggrieved that they did not get a look in for 'The Lost Daughter' or 'Passing'.

Nevertheless it is a decent shortlist.

It would be a major shock, though, if Campion doesn't get her deserved win.

BEST ACTOR 

There were few surprises in this category with Benedict Cumberbatch earning a nod for his towering Daniel Day Lewis like performance in 'The Power of the Dog'.

As expected, though, Will Smith has cemented his frontrunner status with recognition of his amiable performance as the father of the tennis greats, Venus and Serena Williams in 'King Richard'.

Denzel Washington was acknowledged too for his lead performance in Joel Coen's 'The Tragedy of Macbeth,' while Andrew Garfield earned another Best Actor nod for playing the musical writer Jonathan Larson in Lin Manuel Miranda's Netflix musical 'Tick, Tick...BOOM!'

Javier Bardem squeezed in for portraying Desi Arnaz on Aaron Sorkin's underwhelming Amazon Prime movie 'Being the Ricardos'.

Leonardo DiCaprio was, however, frozen out amd may be disappointed that the speculation that he might make the shortlist for 'Don't Look Up'.

Bradley Cooper, Peter Dinklage and 11 year old Jude Hill always looked like long shots in this race for 'Nightmare Alley,' 'Cyrano' and 'Belfast' respectively.

BEST ACTRESS 

After her surprise BAFTA snub, Olivia Colman made the Academy Awards shortlist for 'The Lost Daughter' and reaffirmed her status as a bit of an Oscars darling in recent years.

However this looks like it will be the most open of all this year's Oscar races, with no clearcut favourite.

Lady GaGa was the big casualty, with many pundits believing she was a likely nominee for 'House of Gucci' but it wasn't to be.

Nicole Kidman landed a nomination, though, for impressively impersonating Lucille Ball in 'Being the Ricardos,' while Kirsten Stewart's portrayal of Princess Diana was enough to secure ger a nomination in the otherwise overrated 'Spencer'.

Keeping with the policy of rewarding actresses playing real people, Jessica Chastain got recognition for playing the Evangelical celeb Tammy Faye Bakker in 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'.

While her husband celebrated his Best Actor nod for 'Being the Ricardos,' Penelope Cruz secured a Best Actress nomination and may be the nominee to keep an eye on if momentum builds behind her performance in Pedro Almodovar's Franco era tale 'Parallel Mothers'. 

Colman, Kidman and Stewart are probably the frontrunners in this race with little separating them.

Tessa Thompson, Alana Haim and Emilia Jones should be disappointed that their performances in 'Passing,' 'Licorice Pizza' and 'CODA' did not figure, while the Academy's love affair with Frances McDormand in recent years was not enough to carry her towards another Best Actress nomination for 'The Tragedy of Macbeth'.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Prior to today's nominations, Ireland had a shot at three of its actresses making the shortlist in this category.

In the end, though, Co Kerry's Jessie Buckley was the only one of the trio to get recognition for her superb performance in 'The Lost Daughter'.

Ruth Negga was overlooked for her terrific depiction of an African American woman pretending to be white in 'Passing' but the biggest shock was Caitriona Balfe being ignored for her excellent performance as a mother struggling to keep her family safe in 'Belfast'. 

Judi Dench was surprisingly nominated from Branagh's movie instead, while Aunjanue Ellis deservedly picked up a nomination as Richard Williams' wife Brandy in 'King Richard'.

The big battle in this category, though, appears to be between Ariana Debose for 'West Side Story' and Kirsten Dundst for 'The Power of the Dog'.

If momentum surges behind Jane Campion's movie, Dundst might be unstoppable.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

After his Golden Globe win and BAFTA nomination, Kodi Smit McPhee has been installed as the favourite in this category.

However the biggest threats to him may well come from Ciaran Hinds and Troy Kotsur.

Hinds is a joy to watch as the grandad in 'Belfast,' while the historical significance of Kotsur as a deaf actor winning for 'CODA' could help build support for him.

Smit McPhee, though, remains the favourite despite his co-star Jesse Plemons picking up a deserved nomination in this category too.

Previous winner JK Simmons is back, with a nod for his grouchy, world weary turn in 'Being the Ricardos'.

Bradley Cooper for 'Licorice Pizza,' Woody Norman for 'Cmon Cmon' and Ben Affleck for 'The Tender Bar' saw their Supporting Actor hopes fail to materialise. 

Meanwhile Jamie Dornan can count himself unlucky not to land his first Oscar nomination for 'Belfast.'

BEST INTERNATIONAL PICTURE

With nominations in other mainstream Oscar categories, Ryusuke Hagamuchi's 'Drive My Car' will be strongly fancied to take this award for Japan.

However Jonas Poher Rasmussen's Danish migration tale 'Flee' has also picked up Best Documentary and Best Animated Feature nods and will be a formidable competitor.

Joachim Trier's Norwegian entry 'The Worst Person in the World' also nabbed a Best Original Screenplay nomination, while Pawoc Koyning Dorj's 'Lunana:A Yak in the Classroom' from Bhutan and Paolo Sorrentino's Italian coming of age movie 'The Hand of God' are making up the numbers.

The big surprise here was Academy favourite, Asghar Farhadi from Iran did not make the shortlist for 'A Hero'.

However this feels like Hagamuchi's to lose. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Apart from the nomination of 'Flee,' this category went very much to form.

Disney has landed nominations for three feature length animations with 'Luca,' 'Encanto' and 'Raya and the Last Dragon' all in contention.

Netflix will be delighted that 'The Mitchells versus The Machines' is in the hunt.

However it is a long shot.

Expect another Disney triumph.

The question is whether it will be 'Luca' or 'Encanto'?

OTHER CATEGORIES

As well as picking up Best Picture and screenplay recognition, 'Dune' did well in many of the technical categories and is very much flying the flag for the blockbusters.

Among the other eye catching nominations was Van Morrison landing a Best Original Song nod for his track 'Down to Joy' from Kenneth Branagh's 'Belfast'.

To win, he must overcome Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas O'Connell for their Bond theme 'No Time To Die' and also Beyonce and Dixson whose 'Be Alive' features in 'King Richard'.

Radiohead's Jonny Greenwood picked up a nomination for his musical score for 'The Power of the Dog' but faces a strong challenge from Hans Zimmer for 'Dune'.

If Kenneth Branagh doesn't win Best Picture or Best Director, he might pick up the Best Original Screenplay gong for 'Belfast'.

He is up against 'Licorice Pizza,' 'Don't Look Up,' 'King Richard' and 'The Worst Person in the World' but seems a good bet.

Aaron Sorkin will no doubt feel miffed that 'Being the Ricardos' was shut out.

Jane Campion is up for Best Adapted Screenplay for 'The Power of the Dog'.

Sian Heder for 'CODA,' Maggie Gyllenhaal for 'The Lost Daughter' and Ryusuke Hamagochi and Takamusa Or for 'Drive My Car' will, however, be hoping to pull off an upset.

Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth and Jon Spaihts picked up a nod in this category too for 'Dune'.

Haris Zambarloukos, Robbie Ryan and Seamus McGarvey will be disappointed not to have secured nominations in the Best Cinematography category for their work on 'Belfast,' 'Cmon Cmon' and 'Cyrano' respectively.

Instead Greig Fraser for 'Dune,' Bruno Delbonnel for 'The Tragedy of Macbeth,' Dan Laustsen for 'Nightmare Alley' and Janusz Kaminski for 'West Side Story' are all in the fray.

However Ari Wegner is the clearcut favourite for his stunning work on 'The Power of the Dog'. 

AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION

With the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences adopting the theme this year of "movie lovers unite," several nominations were announced by ordinary citizens ranging from a doctor to an eighth grader, a fire chief to an acting student.

This year's innovation will see the public being able to vote for their favourite movie and favourite moment in film and getting the chance to present an award.

So maybe all's not lost for 'House of Gucci'.

There's hope for Jared yet.

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